Tag Archives: IBM

May’s Pick

After a brief hiatus, I’m happy to say I’m back and excited to start my monthly stock pick again. Those of you who follow my picks will know not to expect excitement, “hot” picks, or “buy now” suggestions. Nope. I’m all about trying to keep things simple by looking at a few key financial indicators and choosing a really safe stock that will let you sleep well at night.

This month is about diversity. My pick is General Mills, Inc (NYSE: GIS). The company is trading 30% below the 52-week high which represents a considerable sale on a solid company. The P/E is 14.78 which isn’t as low as some S&P 100 companies but nothing to turn up your nose at. The EPS is, admittedly, a little lower than many stocks I follow at 2.88. The stock is currently paying a dividend of 4.6% which is the name of the game for dividend investors. Basically, this stock offers a nice combination of dividend income at an attractive price. General Mills wasn’t the top-ranked stock this month (that honor was shared by IBM and Laurentian Bank of Canada) but it’s a huge company that is different from everything else in the portfolio and it’s currently on sale. Both IBM and Laurentian would make fine choices I might add.

January’s Pick

When assigning the scores to the stocks on my watchlist to identify January’s pick, I ended up with a tie. Both International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) and Gamestop (NYSE: GME) scored 13 out of a possible 20 points. Before we get to those stocks, I have to mention that, while Corus Entertainment (TSE: CJR.B) beat them both with a score of 15, it is not my official recommendation. I’m not comfortable recommending this stock because of the recent speculation about the future security of the company’s ad revenue. Also, the stock is just 3% above the 52-week low, indicating the price has not yet started to rebound. Having said that, if you can stomach a little extra risk, the stock is currently 36% off the 52-week high and offering a spectacular 12% dividend. Even if the stock price remains flat for a year you would have made 12% in just the dividend income!

Now, to this month’s pick. As I said there was a tie and that’s good for people who like choice. The top stocks are attractive for different reasons. IBM, as always, is still posting excellent earnings and is still priced attractively. The P/E is 13.69 on EPS of 11.98. Truly fantastic! Less exciting is the fact that the current price is only 10% below the 52-week high. Now, if the stock recovered that 10% in 2018 you’ll have made a respectable return to be sure but we’d like to catch stocks when they’re a little more beaten down if we can. Gamestop, on the other hand, is 33% below the 52-week high which is a much better discount but the numbers, while still attractive, are not as good. The stock has a P/E of 5.2 which is exceptionally low but the earnings are only 3.42 per share which puts it well below average on my list. Oh wait! Have I mentioned the Gamestop dividend? It’s 8.5%. Just saying’. And since they started paying a dividend in 2012, the company has raised it every year. Of course, past performance is no indication of future performance.

As a dividend investor, when I find a stock that pays a fat dividend that I can buy at a discount, I can’t say no so Gamestop is my official pick this month. Happy investing!

December’s Pick

Sometimes life gets in the way of even the most well-intentioned among us. That was me last month. I got about halfway through November and realized I didn’t put out a stock pick for the month. Oops! Well, that’s all water under the bridge now and I’m back with a pick for December. Actually, two picks. Regular readers will recognize that I’m not afraid to give you options. Well this month I’m giving you just that! My two picks are International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) and Altria (NSYE: MO).

I’ve recommended these two stocks several times before so I don’t think I need to repeat my reasons here. If you missed it, feel free to browse through the archives to find out why I like these companies. By the way, Altria is my all-time best performer. In a nutshell, IBM and Altria are both trading below their 52-week highs (15% and 8%, respectively). For Altria that’s not a great sale but the rest of the numbers make up for that. Both companies have impressive P/E and EPS equal to the P/E. That’s what I call value. Basically, they’re earning money (lots of it) yet priced as if they aren’t. While that’s a gross simplification of how to valuate a company, my philosophy is all about keeping it simple. We look for great companies at a good price and these companies are both good value. The dividend yields are under 4% which barely makes our cut but they are solid companies with a long history of increasing dividends.

There you have it. Short and simple. Two great choices this month. While either one is a good bet, I’m adding IBM to the PDI portfolio because it scored 14 while Altria scored 13.

June’s Pick

If you like having options you are going to LOVE this month’s entry. We’re actually suggesting three stocks because we think they are all great choices. In no particular order they are: CIBC, IBM, and BMO.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSE: CM) continues to offer great value to investors again this month. This will make the fourth time CIBC is our top pick and the reasons we like it haven’t changed. The stock is still nearly 13% below its 52-week high with EPS (12.01) larger than P/E (8.78). We’ve pointed out before how remarkable it is for a stock to have EPS greater than P/E and only three or four of the nearly 200 stocks we follow enjoy that distinction. CIBC offers all that and a dividend rate of 4.82%. In a highly regulated and stable banking environment, this stock is a no-brainer.

Choice number two is International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM). When Warren Buffet sold a third of his position in IBM a few weeks investors responded by selling their shares and the stock price tumbled about 6% almost overnight. We see things differently. While he sold a third of his shares, he kept two thirds! What does that tell you? The stock is now trading about 16% below the 52-week high which signals a buying opportunity for us. The EPS (12.17) and P/E (12.56) are both very attractive values and the stock pays a 3.9% dividend to boot! Speaking of dividends, let’s look at the dividend of this stock over the last few years. In 2012 it was $0.85. In 2013 it was $0.95. 2014? $1.10. 2015? $1.30. In 2016 it was $1.40. It’s currently $1.50. Anybody notice a trend? That’s a 76% increase in 5 years! By the way, you can look back through more than 20 years of regular increases (it was 6 cents a share in 1993).

Our third choice is another Canadian bank: Bank of Montreal (TSE:BMO). We like this stock for pretty much the same reasons as we like CIBC. The stock is more than 12% off the 52-week high which is a significant discount for a very safe stock. The P/E of 11.47, EPS of 7.95 and dividend rate of 3.95% round out the attractive features of the stock. Do we really need to say more?

The lower P/E and higher dividend rate mean we will officially recommend CIBC but, to be honest, you’d do well buying any of these three.

June’s Pick

To be honest, we had a hard time settling on a stock pick this month. There was a couple of companies at the top but a couple of really tempting, slightly more risky options, too. If you’re looking for something with a little greater reward we still like Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (TSE: POT) and you could also think about Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB). Beware though, with greater reward comes greater risk. Potash Corp did cut their dividend in April but they’re still paying an attractive 5.9%. Add to that the fact that we think the world will need fertilizer again in the future and this stock has room for growth. Since we started talking about them a few months ago, Williams Companies has risen from $11 to $21, an increase of about 90%. Not bad if we do say so ourselves. As the uncertainty caused by low oil prices levels out, their share price will continue to rise and they’re paying a juicy 12% dividend in the meantime. Remember that means even if the price was flat for a year you could sell it and walk away with a 12% return.

But enough avoiding the issue. The idea is to recommend a single stock each month, so let’s get to it. There’s something inherently uncomfortable about repeatedly recommending the same stock but one strength of our scoring system is its ability to remove subjective biases like that. That said, we’re suggesting General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) – again.

After we assigned the scores this month there was a three-way tie between General Motors, IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD). Although it scored high in other categories, GILD offers a dividend of only 1.9% which is well below our threshold of 3.5% so we eliminated it right away. If this feels a little like deja vu it’s because we had a tie between GM and IBM last month too. Our reasons for choosing GM again are going to read just like last month as well. The 4.7 P/E for GM is significantly better than IBM’s 11.5 which puts GM at a better price even though IBM produces more income per share with an EPS of 13.3 versus GM’s 6.7. The dividend return for GM is still nearly a full percentage point higher than for IBM (4.9% and 3.7%, respectively). Remember, this blog is still about dividend income so GM gets the nod once again.

Like we said last month, you can’t go wrong with either of these. Buy whichever you want – or both – and sleep at night.

May’s Pick

It’s time to announce the results of our stock analysis for May and there won’t be any surprises this month. We actually had a tie between two stocks we previously recommended: General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) and International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM). After assigning all the points, both earned a final score of 13. If you’re the type of person that wants a little investment advice but also likes some choice, you’ll be happy with our post this month. In fact, there were some other companies that also scored very well but we like to minimize risk so we’re not recommending those ones. Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (TSE: POT) also scored 13 and is currently trading 46% off their 52-week high while paying an attractive 5.8% dividend. If you don’t mind a little short term uncertainty, buying or increasing a position in POT would be a good move.

Every month we try to simplify things as much as possible so we feel compelled to actually choose a winner in the tie this month. We’re going with GM and here’s why. GM is 17.4% off their 52-week high and IBM is 17.1% off theirs so nothing notable there. We do see a difference in the P/E ratio, however. GM is at 4.8 while IBM is at 11 so, while they’re both similarly depressed from the 52-week high, GM is at a much better price overall, considering the P/E. In other words, their 52-week high should be higher so, technically, they’re on sale at a better price right now. IBM is more profitable on an EPS basis (13 versus 7 for GM) but we’re more interested in looking for a good price on a good company than current profitability. Finally, this is a blog about dividend income so the dividend difference between the two was the most important factor in our decision. The dividend for GM is currently 4.7% while that from IBM is 3.8 – almost a full percentage point difference!

To be honest, we feel both of these are great choices. If you previously bought IBM when we recommended them, it makes sense to buy more shares of that company to increase your DRIP (or compounding) potential. The same could be said for GM if you previously bought them. If you’d like to increase the diversity in your portfolio, buy the one you don’t already own. It’s really a no lose situation so whichever you choose you can sleep at night.

March’s Pick

It’s time to announce our stock pick for March and there’s a good chance you’ll be happy to hear we’re not suggesting IBM (NYSE: IBM) again. To be clear, if IBM came out on top after assigning the scores, we’d have no problem recommending it for a fourth month in a row – but it’s not. This is about choosing the best stock, not about diversifying for no good reason. Like last month, we’re going to offer some choice. Our pick from the S&P 100 is General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) but we’re also watching Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (TSE: POT) which, while not on the S&P 100, still represents a good opportunity. To be sure, the buyer’s market continues. With markets still a little off, more than 30 companies on the S&P 100 are trading at least 25% below their 52-week high so there are lots of bargains to choose from if you want capital growth.

Let’s look first at GM. This well-known american company is trading 24% below the 52-week high which is a good sale price and makes the $0.38 dividend a 5.15% return. That return is outstanding for a big, blue-chip stock when we compare it to companies such as Apple (2.11%), Wal Mart (3.01%), Johnson and Johnson (2.82%), and McDonald’s (3.00%). With a P/E of 4.92, General Motors represents great value at this time and the $6 EPS indicates strong earnings. We added GM to our portfolio on March 1.

So what’s happening with Potash Corp? Since we mentioned them back on January 29, the price has moved up 8% which is a decent gain for a month if you had purchased them then and sold them now. That’s great for a quick fix but our strategy is to buy value and hold it. Despite that recent gain, they’re still 49% off the 52-week high which is a significant sale. The 11.17 P/E is attractive but the $2.05 EPS is less than ideal (in fact, an EPS that low doesn’t even score on our system) but the depressed worldwide potash price is to blame for that. The company is still profitable and continues to pay that juicy 6.1% dividend. If you’re comfortable straying a little from our core system, POT is a great buy!

Finally, we wouldn’t feel right if we didn’t at least give a little update on IBM. To be fair, it’s still an attractive stock. They’re trading 24% below the 52-week high which is a good sale. With a P/E of 9.82 and EPS of over $13 they are very well-priced for their earnings. The dividend yield is not outstanding but 3.89% is nothing to scoff at. If you previously purchased IBM and are looking to increase your position, it’s still a good time.

February’s Pick

If you’re trying to pick a stock to purchase in February, just throw a dart at a list of the S&P 100 and you’ll likely do well. More than 50 of the companies on the index are currently trading at more than 20% off their 52 week high and another 40 or so are at least 10% off that mark. If capital growth is your goal, it’s hard to go wrong. But we want more. While it might sound like a broken record, we are, for the third month in a row, recommending International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM). Before we get to the reasons, let’s look at three other front-runners.

When all the scores had been assigned, Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. was in our top 3. It’s 55% off the 52 week high with a low P/E of 10.05 and they’re still profitable despite the collapse of potash prices. That collapse, however brings with it some uncertainty about their future price and we’d rather buy them on their way up than down. There are also some rumors about them cutting their jaw-dropping 10% dividend. Mind you, even if they slashed it by half you’d still earn a respectable 5%. If that dividend outweighs the price risk for you, buy them!

National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) is also a good-looking stock. They are 49% off the 52 week high with P/E of 10.57 and EPS of 3.29. This company designs and builds equipment for oil and gas drilling so they enjoy some protection from the oil price market. Still, the current uncertainty in oil prices makes this stock a little uncertain also. Of course, we all know that oil prices will recover and that means drilling will continue and eventually expand also. Their 6.2% dividend certainly makes them rewarding in the meantime.

Finally, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT). This company was on our radar back in December but was nudged out by IBM. Well, they still look good. At 35% off the 52 week high, and with a P/E of 14.39 and EPS of 4.82 they continue to offer a juicy dividend of 5.3%. Caterpillar has its work cut out for it as low oil prices and sagging commodity prices mean less demand for their equipment. Nevertheless, they are a profitable company at a good price. Again, we prefer to buy on the way up but that dividend might make them attractive for some investors in the meantime.

To be honest, we’d be happy buying and holding any of these three, but we’re settling on IBM again. There are some mixed reviews about the near future of the company and time will undoubtedly prove half of those analysts right. For us, we want a solid company at a good price that pays a nice dividend. This month, that’s IBM. They are 31% below the 52 week high and, while they are still losing ground, we’re willing to ignore that and increase our position because the P/E and EPS are both so great at 9.5 and 14.8, respectively. They have a long history of rewarding investors with a steady (and growing) dividend which is currently at 4.3%.

Seems like the current market has something for every investor so you should find it relatively easy to pick a stock this month. We thought we’d give you a few options because, while the scores say one thing, it never hurts to consider some outside factors that influence prices. Remember, the name of the game here is buy and hold so no matter which of the four you go with, a few years from now you won’t have any regrets.

January’s Pick

This month International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) came out in the top spot with a score of 13, so we’re increasing our position in them after also recommending it last month. It’s currently trading at 21.6% below the 52-week high, representing a good sale, and offers a dividend of 3.8%.january_pick

The ratios are also still strong with a P/E of 9.49 and EPS of 14.57. Let’s not forget that Buffett still likes them. Works for us! Remember, too, that while our overall goal is to grow dividend income, capital appreciation of the share price is an important way to build wealth. IBM doesn’t have the highest dividend rate but it offers potential for share price improvement and is a safe bet overall. Last month we mentioned keeping an eye on Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB). This month they placed in the top ten but are too risky for us to recommend it. They are currently 60% below their 52-week high becausethey gave up some ground in the last month meaning their share price continues to slide. Sure, their dividend rate is now over 10% but that might not be sustainable and the slipping share price could still offset that return. We’ll keep waiting on that one.

December’s pick

This month we’re buying International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM). After all the scores had been assigned, there were a couple of really attractive options this month. Williams Companies Inc (NYSE: WMB) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) had scores of 10 each, but IBM came out in the top spot with a score of 13. WMB is trading 41% below the 52 week high which is a great sale, but continued uncertainty in the energy sector means it might go lower still so could be a better buy later. It also offers an awesome dividend yield of 7.1% but we managed to resist that
siren call.
ibmCAT is trading 32% below its 52 week high and the dividend is 4.3%, significantly higher than IBM’s 3.8%, making it another attractive choice.

We don’t always automatically buy the stock with the highest score because there are always other factors, beside the five financials we look at, to consider.

Despite what both WMB and CAT have to offer, we went with IBM for three reasons:

  1. At a P/E of 9.1 it seems undervalued so offers a better buy for the price. CAT’s P/E is 14.8.
  2. The EPS is 14.57 compared to CAT’s 4.82 – a big difference – which means IBM is earning more money per share.
  3. Warren Buffett continues to add to his position in IBM (Berkshire Hathaway now owns over 8% of IBM’s outstanding shares). ‘Nuff said?

Remember, while we favor dividend income, we also want to protect and grow our capital, which is why we chose to go with the promise of growth in IBM’s price over the dividend yield of WMB. I’m sure WMB will remain on our radar and will likely be a strong contender in the months to come.